The GCC economy is projected to contract by 6.4% in 2026 due to regional conflict disrupting energy infrastructure and exports—evidenced by a 26.9% drop in the hydrocarbon and Brent crude surging above $100 a barrel—before staging a robust 5.8% recovery in 2027. According to a report by ICAEW and Oxford Economics, the UAE's GDP sector will decline 1.5% this year before rebounding sharply to 6.6% growth in 2027, while Saudi Arabia (shrinking 4.6% in 2026 before growing 4.7% in 2027) and Qatar (projected for 11.5% growth in 2027) follow similar trajectories as energy markets stabilize. Despite near-term challenges—including anticipated US Federal Reserve rate hikes in December keeping GCC borrowing costs elevated—resilient non-oil PMIs, strong business adaptability, and expected regional growth of 3.3% in non-oil sectors next year point to a solid economic recovery across the region. (ICE DUBAI)

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