The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply downgraded its 2026 economic outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, projecting the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink by 0.3 percent—down from a previously estimated 1.9 percent expansion—making it the only global region expected to experience negative growth this year.Driven largely by prolonged shipping disruptions in the strategic Strait of Hormuz stemming from the US-Israel war on Iran, the fallout is hitting oil-reliant nations hardest. Gulf economies face severe headwinds, with Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and Bahrain recording double-digit GDP contractions, while Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to shrink by 3.3 percent.The United Arab Emirates is projected to see a 3.9 percent contraction in 2026. However, the UAE remains relatively resilient compared to inside-Strait nations due to its ability to bypass Hormuz shipping routes via the port of Fujairah, paired with strong momentum in its non-oil, technology, and AI sectors. The IMF anticipates a sharp recovery for the UAE, forecasting 7.7 percent GDP growth in 2027 as trade flows normalize.Despite these severe regional downturns, global GDP growth was slightly upgraded to 3.1 percent, buoyed by stronger expansion in major world economies, though the IMF warned that escalating geopolitical tensions and supply shocks remain major risks to overall global stability. (ICE DUBAI)

Fonte notizia: https://www.semafor.com/article/10/13/2026/the-imf-cuts-its-2026-growth-forecasts-across-the-gulf